Uncertainty in pension supply is emerging as the forecast for the expected exhaustion of the national pension fund will be in 2055, two years earlier than originally expected. However, the consensus among experts is that the chances of not actually receiving a pension are slim.
According to the results of the 5th national pension financial estimation by the Ministry of Health and Welfare on the 29th, if the national pension maintains the current system, a deficit will occur from 2041 and the fund will be exhausted by 2055. Compared to the results of the 4th estimate in 2018, the balance deficit was delayed by one year and the fund exhaustion was delayed by two years.
2055 is the year that those born in 1990 will turn 65, which is the current national pension age. If the current system is maintained, the insurance premium rate will reach 22.7% in 2050, 29.8% in 2060, and 34.9% in 2080 in order to pay the national pension as it is even after the pension fund is exhausted.
However, the likelihood of such a situation actually occurring is small.
First of all, this estimation result is derived from the assumption that the national insurance-related system, such as the insurance premium rate and the age at which benefits begin to be received, will remain at the current level. As both the government and the National Assembly are pushing for reform of the national pension, depending on the outcome, the exhaustion period may be delayed further.
In a briefing on the 27th, Jeon Byung-mok, chairman of the National Pension Financial Estimation Expert Committee, said, "The results of this trial calculation of the national pension financial estimation are forecasted under the premise that the current system will be maintained without reforms in the insurance premium rate, income replacement rate, and subscription age." "Rather than focusing on the year the fund was exhausted, it is necessary to use it for institutional reform as a reference for the ongoing discussion on pension reform in the National Assembly and the establishment of a comprehensive management plan for the national pension in the future," he emphasized.
The Citizens' Coalition for Economic Justice also added, "If an agreement is reached on various financial stabilization alternatives, such as adjusting the insurance premium rate and the age of start of receiving benefits, which are currently being dealt with by the special pension committee, the point of depletion of the national pension fund will naturally be delayed."
There is also an opinion that even if the fund is exhausted, the national pension can be paid through methods such as tax revenue injection. [Newsis]